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Global Tariff War Risk Heat Map
Estimated GDP Losses from Trade Conflicts
Integrated Model
Integrated Model
Baseline Model
Model with profit-shifting effects
Model with supply chain disruptions
projections using 2014 trade levels
GDP Loss Risk
40%+
20%
10%
3%
1%
0%
Data source: Lashkaripour (2021) "
The Cost of Global Tariff War: A Sufficient Statistics Approach
,"
Journal of International Economics
Copyright 2025 Ahmad Lashkaripour. All Rights Reserved.